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本篇為全新研究:不沿用任何過往報告的標的、價位或結論,全部數字取自本次 P1Research 查詢(2026-10-11 14:19–14:21 UTC)。
選取方式:P1Research 158 檔候選中,只有 6 檔同時符合「新觸發 ≤3 天、CE 多頭、收盤站上 VWAP」(STRIKE)。前三名 CIEN、MO、CSCO 是系統最終交易計畫;第 4、5 檔取其餘 STRIKE 中的 AMZN 與 MELI。排名第 5 的 EOS 未納入:它是 Eaton Vance Enhanced Equity Income Fund II(封閉式基金),單日成交 16.6 萬股、ATR 1.17%,沒有期權鏈或分析師目標可以佐證,交易性不如 AMZN、MELI。這是本報告的取捨,不是系統的排序。
| # | Ticker | 角色 | 10/09 收盤 | 排名 · 分數 | Cycle / CE | RVOL | ATR | RSI14 | Net GEX | GEX 牆 | 分析師均價 | 下次財報 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIEN Ciena |
交易計畫 #1 | 449.77 +5.60% |
#1 · 63 | C6 -> C1、D2、CE 多 15 日 | 1.31 | 5.49% | 67.1 | +$26.7M flip 439.8 | 450 / 455 / 460 | 500.38 +11.3% |
2026-12-10 |
| 2 | MO Altria |
交易計畫 #2 | 71.68 +0.37% |
#3 · 60.4 | C6 -> C1、D1、CE 多 4 日 | 1.05 | 1.92% | 65.4 | +$32.2M flip 69.7 | 72 / 72.5 / 75 | 69.71 −2.7% |
2026-10-29 |
| 3 | CSCO Cisco Systems |
交易計畫 #3 | 118.39 +3.05% |
#4 · 58.8 | C6 -> C1、D1、CE 多 6 日 | 0.58 | 2.34% | 64.8 | +$43.0M flip 114.5 | 119 / 120 / 125 | 129.77 +9.6% |
2026-11-11 |
| 4 | AMZN Amazon.com |
次選觀察 #4 | 262.43 +3.29% |
#15 · 47 | C5 -> C6、D3、CE 多 4 日 | 0.91 | 2.25% | 59.0 | +$1,428.4M flip 257.5 | 262.5 / 265 / 270 | 328.71 +25.3% |
2026-10-29 |
| 5 | MELI MercadoLibre |
次選觀察 #5 | 1,889.85 +1.79% |
#17 · 46.5 | C5 -> C6、D2、CE 多 5 日 | 0.45 | 3.08% | 57.7 | +$60.9M flip 1,890.1 | 1890 / 1900 / 1910 | 2,170.00 +14.8% |
2026-11-04 |
前三檔是 report_trading_brief 的 finalTrades,進場、停損、目標原樣照錄。風險距離、報酬風險比與部位上限是本報告依 10/09 收盤價計算:部位上限=單檔風險 0.2–0.3% ÷ 停損距離。
| 標的 | 進場/確認 | 停損 | 目標 | 停損距離 | T2 距離 | T2 報酬/風險 | 部位上限(佔帳戶) | 狀態 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIEN | >449.77,且站上當日 VWAP、RVOL ≥1.2 | 405.33 | 450 / 455 | −9.9% | +1.2% | 0.12 | 2.0–3.0% | STRIKE |
| MO | >71.68,且站上當日 VWAP、RVOL ≥1.2 | 69.19 | 72 / 72.5 | −3.5% | +1.1% | 0.33 | 5.8–8.6% | STRIKE |
| CSCO | >118.39,且站上當日 VWAP、RVOL ≥1.2 | 113.10 | 119 / 120 | −4.5% | +1.4% | 0.30 | 4.5–6.7% | STRIKE |
系統規定不得為了湊數把其他候選寫進交易計畫,所以這兩檔沒有系統停損與目標。下表的進場條件是比照前三檔的同一規則(突破前一日收盤+VWAP+RVOL ≥1.2)推得;GEX flip 只是多空環境參考,不是停損價。
| 標的 | 觀察條件(比照系統規則) | GEX flip | GEX 牆 | RVOL | 系統決策 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | >262.43,且站上當日 VWAP、RVOL ≥1.2 | 257.5 | 262.5 / 265 / 270 | 0.91 | 確認後可做 |
| MELI | >1,889.85,且站上當日 VWAP、RVOL ≥1.2 | 1,890.1 | 1890 / 1900 / 1910 | 0.45 | 確認後可做 |
分數是相對排序,不是勝率;前 3 檔已列入最終交易計畫。底色標示為本報告五檔建議。
| # | Ticker | 模式 | 分數 | 核心訊號 | VWAP | X 72h | 決策 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIEN | STRIKE | 63 | C6 -> C1、D2、RVOL 1.31 | +0.74% | 7 / 5 | 確認後可做 |
| 3 | MO | STRIKE | 60.4 | C6 -> C1、D1、RVOL 1.05 | +0.04% | 1 / 1 | 確認後可做 |
| 4 | CSCO | STRIKE | 58.8 | C6 -> C1、D1、RVOL 0.58 | +0.77% | 3 / 2 | 確認後可做 |
| 5 | EOS | STRIKE | 58 | C5 -> C6、D1、RVOL 1.13 | +0.25% | 3 / 1 | 確認後可做 |
| 10 | PLTR | STRIKE_WATCH | 49.7 | C2 -> C1、D19、RVOL 1.53 | +2.25% | 22 / 10 | 需次日確認 |
| 15 | AMZN | STRIKE | 47 | C5 -> C6、D3、RVOL 0.91 | +0.89% | 11 / 8 | 確認後可做 |
| 16 | COHR | STRIKE_WATCH | 46.5 | C6 -> C1、D5、RVOL 1.15 | +0.60% | 16 / 7 | 需次日確認 |
| 17 | MELI | STRIKE | 46.5 | C5 -> C6、D2、RVOL 0.45 | +0.81% | 1 / 1 | 確認後可做 |
| 19 | PENG | STRIKE_WATCH | 43.9 | C6 -> C1、D6、RVOL 1.64 | +3.21% | 5 / 4 | 需次日確認 |
| 24 | HIMS | STRIKE_WATCH | 41.9 | C4 -> C6、D1、RVOL 1.62 | +2.61% | 3 / 3 | 需次日確認 |
| 27 | NAUT | STRIKE_WATCH | 41.4 | C6 -> C1、D6、RVOL 2.98 | +0.67% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 28 | MRNA | STRIKE_WATCH | 41.2 | C6 -> C1、D41、RVOL 1.69 | +4.57% | 4 / 3 | 需次日確認 |
| 32 | GFS | STRIKE_WATCH | 40.7 | C4 -> C5、D15、RVOL 1.21 | +0.05% | 7 / 5 | 需次日確認 |
| 36 | CRDO | STRIKE_WATCH | 39.7 | C5 -> C6、D6、RVOL 0.73 | +0.66% | 8 / 6 | 需次日確認 |
| 40 | QQQ | STRIKE_WATCH | 39.2 | C3 -> C1、D16、RVOL 0.56 | +0.09% | 23 / 8 | 需次日確認 |
| 41 | IBRX | STRIKE_WATCH | 39.1 | C6 -> C1、D33、RVOL 1.3 | +0.04% | 2 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 46 | MRVL | STRIKE_WATCH | 37.6 | C3 -> C1、D23、RVOL 0.76 | +1.08% | 12 / 6 | 需次日確認 |
| 48 | HQ | STRIKE_WATCH | 37.2 | C5 -> C6、D4、RVOL 0.29 | +0.16% | 2 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 52 | INIO | STRIKE_WATCH | 36.6 | C5 -> C4、D2、RVOL 0.6 | +0.96% | 3 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 55 | SNOW | STRIKE_WATCH | 36.5 | C6 -> C1、D97、RVOL 2 | +2.36% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 61 | BE | STRIKE_WATCH | 35.9 | C6 -> C1、D23、RVOL 0.5 | +1.80% | 8 / 6 | 需次日確認 |
| 77 | SANM | STRIKE_WATCH | 34.8 | C6 -> C1、D12、RVOL 0.92 | +0.41% | 2 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 78 | GME | STRIKE_WATCH | 34.8 | C6 -> C1、D17、RVOL 1.57 | +1.02% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 82 | KEYS | STRIKE_WATCH | 34.2 | C6 -> C1、D14、RVOL 0.77 | +0.67% | 9 / 3 | 需次日確認 |
| 83 | PL | STRIKE_WATCH | 33.9 | C5 -> C4、D2、RVOL 0.71 | +1.93% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 88 | CMG | STRIKE_WATCH | 33.7 | C3 -> C4、D13、RVOL 1.07 | +0.00% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 90 | MTSI | STRIKE_WATCH | 33.7 | C6 -> C1、D6、RVOL 0.9 | +0.63% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 94 | OSCR | STRIKE_WATCH | 33.1 | C3 -> C1、D5、RVOL 0.96 | +0.14% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 95 | RRX | STRIKE_WATCH | 32.8 | C4 -> C5、D5、RVOL 0.89 | +0.47% | 2 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 97 | ASX | STRIKE_WATCH | 32.5 | C2 -> C1、D17、RVOL 0.8 | +0.58% | 3 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 100 | MSFT | STRIKE_WATCH | 32.3 | C5 -> C1、D51、RVOL 0.8 | +0.38% | 7 / 6 | 需次日確認 |
| 104 | VIAV | STRIKE_WATCH | 32.2 | C6 -> C1、D7、RVOL 0.47 | +0.05% | 4 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 105 | FPS | STRIKE_WATCH | 32 | C6 -> C1、D6、RVOL 0.51 | +0.32% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 107 | GRAB | STRIKE_WATCH | 31.8 | C5 -> C4、D29、RVOL 0.92 | +0.01% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 112 | VECO | STRIKE_WATCH | 31.4 | C6 -> C1、D5、RVOL 0.41 | +0.33% | 2 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 115 | ANET | STRIKE_WATCH | 31.2 | C2 -> C1、D50、RVOL 0.86 | +0.23% | 2 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 120 | SMTC | STRIKE_WATCH | 30.5 | C6 -> C1、D25、RVOL 0.75 | +0.78% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 124 | DELL | STRIKE_WATCH | 29.9 | C2 -> C1、D27、RVOL 0.69 | +1.07% | 2 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 129 | SPY | STRIKE_WATCH | 29.3 | C2 -> C1、D6、RVOL 0.49 | +0.12% | 8 / 4 | 需次日確認 |
| 132 | AAPL | STRIKE_WATCH | 29.2 | C2 -> C1、D31、RVOL 0.98 | +0.67% | 3 / 2 | 需次日確認 |
| 138 | CRWD | STRIKE_WATCH | 28.6 | C3 -> C1、D31、RVOL 0.66 | +1.74% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 139 | IGV | STRIKE_WATCH | 28.4 | C2 -> C1、D20、RVOL 0.76 | +0.62% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 140 | UBER | STRIKE_WATCH | 28.3 | C3 -> C4、D18、RVOL 0.96 | +0.07% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 141 | PM | STRIKE_WATCH | 28.2 | C2 -> C1、D3、RVOL 0.71 | +0.43% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 143 | MOH | STRIKE_WATCH | 28.1 | C4 -> C5、D1、RVOL 0.78 | +0.08% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 146 | BIRK | STRIKE_WATCH | 27.7 | C4 -> C5、D7、RVOL 0.44 | +0.54% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 149 | MNST | STRIKE_WATCH | 27.6 | C3 -> C4、D27、RVOL 0.65 | +0.07% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| 156 | RSP | STRIKE_WATCH | 24.8 | C3 -> C4、D17、RVOL 0.85 | +0.13% | 1 / 1 | 需次日確認 |
| # | Ticker | 模式 | 核心訊號 | X 72h | 決策 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CIEN | STRIKE | C6 -> C1、D2、CE 多、RVOL 1.31 | 7 / 5 authors | 確認後可做 |
| 2 | AAOI | CORE | C5 -> C6、D5、CE 空、RVOL 1.68 | 31 / 13 authors | 成熟趨勢,不追 |
| 3 | MO | STRIKE | C6 -> C1、D1、CE 多、RVOL 1.05 | 1 / 1 authors | 確認後可做 |
| 4 | CSCO | STRIKE | C6 -> C1、D1、CE 多、RVOL 0.58 | 3 / 2 authors | 確認後可做 |
| 5 | EOS | STRIKE | C5 -> C6、D1、CE 多、RVOL 1.13 | 3 / 1 authors | 確認後可做 |
| 6 | ASTS | CORE | C5 -> C4、D34、CE 空、RVOL 4.85 | 18 / 10 authors | 成熟趨勢,不追 |
| 7 | NBIS | CORE | C1 -> C2、D1、CE 空、RVOL 0.59 | 35 / 13 authors | 成熟趨勢,不追 |
| 8 | LITE | CORE | C2 -> C1、D18、CE 多、RVOL 1.1 | 31 / 12 authors | 成熟趨勢,不追 |
| 9 | NVDA | CORE | C2 -> C1、D15、CE 空、RVOL 0.77 | 35 / 17 authors | 成熟趨勢,不追 |
| 10 | PLTR | STRIKE_WATCH | C2 -> C1、D19、CE 多、RVOL 1.53 | 22 / 10 authors | 需次日確認 |
| 板塊 | 檔數 | 趨勢強度 | 新觸發 | 成交額 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI SERVERS & HARDWARE | 7 | +71.4 | 57.1% | $5.9B |
| ENTERPRISE SOFTWARE & CYBERSECURITY | 22 | +63.6 | 13.6% | $25.5B |
| CHINA TECH | 16 | +62.5 | 12.5% | $2.6B |
| NETWORKING & INTERCONNECT | 10 | +60.0 | 50% | $13.8B |
| POWER & GRID | 25 | +44.0 | 48% | $10.0B |
| FINTECH | 14 | +28.6 | 28.6% | $6.5B |
| AI PLATFORMS & INTERNET | 11 | +27.3 | 36.4% | $32.0B |
| GAMING & DIGITAL MEDIA | 22 | +27.3 | 18.2% | $6.0B |
| SEMI EQUIPMENT | 15 | +6.7 | 73.3% | $6.6B |
| HEALTHCARE & BIOTECH | 40 | −15.0 | 12.5% | $25.2B |
| SPORTS BETTING | 10 | −20.0 | 0% | $627.3M |
| ROBOTICS & INDUSTRIAL AUTOMATION | 28 | −21.4 | 25% | $17.5B |
| AI COMPUTE & SEMIS | 25 | −36.0 | 28% | $40.9B |
| OPTICAL NETWORKING & PHOTONICS | 13 | −38.5 | 38.5% | $11.9B |
| MEMORY & STORAGE | 5 | −60.0 | 0% | $32.6B |
| METALS & MINING | 15 | −60.0 | 0% | $4.9B |
| NUCLEAR & SMR | 14 | −71.4 | 0% | $1.1B |
| SPACE & eVTOL | 22 | −72.7 | 4.5% | $17.5B |
| CRYPTO & DIGITAL ASSETS | 9 | −77.8 | 33.3% | $6.1B |
| DEFENSE & DRONES | 20 | −80.0 | 0% | $9.8B |
| AI CLOUD & DATA CENTERS | 18 | −100.0 | 0% | $6.7B |
| QUANTUM | 7 | −100.0 | 0% | $797.8M |
| 標的 | Net GEX | Flip | 關鍵牆 | 含義 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | +$13,204.7M | 774.2 | 779 / 780 / 785 | 高正 GEX,壓抑波動,爆發性較低 |
| QQQ | −$145.1M | 無可靠單一 flip | 752 / 753 / 755 | 無可靠單一 flip;負 GEX,方向性波動易放大 |
| NVDA | +$739.3M | 228.5 | 230 / 235 / 240 | 高正 GEX,壓抑波動,爆發性較低 |
| NBIS | −$36.8M | 無可靠單一 flip | 222.5 / 250 / 260 | 無可靠單一 flip;負 GEX,方向性波動易放大 |
| AAOI | +$4.9M | 109.9 | 110 / 120 / 125 | 110 為第一主壓力/目標 |
| LITE | +$22.9M | 1,136.2 | 1105 / 1110 / 1140 | 1105 為第一主壓力/目標 |
| PLTR | +$303.3M | 173.0 | 210 / 220 / 230 | 高正 GEX,壓抑波動,爆發性較低 |
| MU | −$217.2M | 895.2 | 1035 / 1040 / 1100 | 負 GEX,方向性波動易放大 |
| ASTS | −$10.6M | 無可靠單一 flip | 60 / 61 | 無可靠單一 flip;負 GEX,方向性波動易放大 |
| IREN | −$21.7M | 無可靠單一 flip | 40 / 41 / 42 | 無可靠單一 flip;負 GEX,方向性波動易放大 |
| 日期 | 公司 | EPS 預估 | 營收預估 | 備註 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | GS | 12.86 | $16.8B | ATM IV 34.6% |
| 2026-10-13 | JNJ | 2.5 | $25.4B | — |
| 2026-10-14 | ASML | 12.13 | $13.2B | ATM IV 44.9% |
| 2026-10-14 | BAC | 1.1 | $30.6B | ATM IV 34.9% |
五檔建議本週都沒有財報;最近的是 MO 與 AMZN(10/29)。本週事件風險:GS、BAC(金融)、ASML(半導體設備)、JNJ(醫療)。ASML 10/14 的結果可能牽動 SOXX,而 SOXX 已是市場閘門中的待確認項。